Will Trump increase tariffs?

the Trump administration's strategy in international trade policy may, as you suggested, involve using tariffs as a bargaining chip to coerce other countries into making concessions beneficial to the United States through negotiations and the threat of potential trade wars. The aim of this strategy is not only to directly increase tariff revenue for the United States but also, more importantly, to influence the international trade landscape, promote exports of American goods and services, thereby driving economic growth and employment, and reducing the US trade deficit.

Below is a further exploration of the third possibility you raised:

Using the Threat of Trade Wars to Boost American Exports:

The Trump administration may publicly or privately convey to other countries that if they do not make concessions in trade negotiations, they will face harsher tariff measures or a comprehensive trade war.

This threat may prompt other countries to increase their purchases of American goods in exchange for tariff reductions or to avoid more severe trade sanctions.

Reducing the Trade Deficit:

By increasing exports of American goods, the Trump administration hopes to gradually narrow the US trade deficit, which is seen as a crucial means of enhancing the US economy and political status.

Reducing the trade deficit can not only improve the US international balance of payments but also help boost the competitiveness and job opportunities of domestic industries.

Tariffs as a Negotiation Strategy:

The Trump administration may view tariffs as a negotiation tool, using increases or decreases in tariff levels to influence the positions and decisions of other countries in trade negotiations.

This strategy requires the US government to maintain sufficient flexibility and strategic thinking in negotiations to maximize American national interests.

However, it should be noted that this tariff-based negotiation strategy also carries certain risks and uncertainties. Firstly, other countries may be unwilling to make significant concessions in trade negotiations, leading to谈判 breakdowns and triggering full-scale trade wars. Secondly, even if other countries increase their purchases of American goods under pressure, this growth may be temporary and may not sustainably drive US economic growth and employment.

Therefore, the Trump administration needs to carefully weigh the pros and cons when implementing this strategy and consider the potential long-term impacts. At the same time, the international community also needs to strengthen cooperation and communication to jointly address the challenges posed by trade protectionism and unilateralism.